Though nothing is ever certain when it comes to predicting the path of tropical storms and hurricanes, all eyes along the Gulf Coast are looking southward toward Tropical Storm Cristobal.
The storm formed Tuesday in the Bay of Campeche and has kept its center of circulation just offshore, which has allowed it to strengthen. As of Wednesday morning, it was producing winds of 60 mph and gusts of up to 7 mph.
The system was expected to weaken during the day Tuesday into Wednesday as it made its first landfall in southern Mexico. However, by the end of the week, Cristobal is expected to begin a northward track towards the U.S. Gulf Coast — more specifically, South Louisiana — and pick up speed.
The National Hurricane Center has picked up on the southward drift and the current forecast bringing the storm over land for about a day could go a long way in preventing the system from ever reaching hurricane strength.
Weather experts note that forecasting a stalled system, especially over land, makes forecasting intensity down the line incredibly difficult as small little changes have big implications.
Once it moves back over water, Cristobal should start to move northward towards the U.S. Gulf Coast quickly, where it will further strengthen and organize. Models are in general agreement that Louisiana will be the likeliest to see landfall Sunday night into Monday morning.
The National Hurricane Center forecast cone shows the center of the cone moving into St. Mary Parish Sunday night into Monday morning. Further adjustments to this cone will happen over the next several days.
At press time on Wednesday, the NHC forecast has the highest impacts and greatest flooding threat from Cristobal east of the center of rotation. Areas across the Gulf shores area could see over a foot of rainfall from this event.
In Acadiana, residents can expect possible tropical storm-force winds of 30-70 mph. Gusts could reach hurricane force around 80 mph at times. Most of Acadiana will receive 2 to 5.5 inches of rain but isolated higher amounts are possible.
Dependent on the exact track of Cristobal as it makes landfall could decrease or increase the flash flooding threat for Acadiana. Coastal flooding with a storm surge is expected for some of the state, too.